HE 1999 TOBACCO MARKETING SCHEDULE AND SITUATION UPDATE
R.W. Sutton, Extension Ag. Economist
D.T. Gooden, Extension Agronomist

UPDATE: South Carolina tobacco markets are opening on August 3rd or about one week later than last year. Overall, this should be an excellent crop as the rains started at the 11th hour and just in time to have a positive effect on yield and especially quality. This crop should be much improved over last year. Marketing issues are significant and complex as we start this year. Among these are baling and the cost of handling two different packages, group grading, the selling process and a shorter season, buyers on all markets, and the longer-term matter of contracting.

With all the uncertainty facing the industry, it is presently unknown how the companies, exporters, and dealers will react. This is primarily based upon such factors as the cost of the settlement process, litigation, potential taxes, and possible changes in legislation, regulations and restrictions. In turn, this will affect estimates of future domestic usage, exports of U.S. manufactured cigarettes, and leaf exports. It is thought the Asian economic situation is starting to improve but it is doubtful if it will impact this year's market.

As the market opens, it appears there will not be any near-term legislative/other action that will significantly change or eliminate the program. This could mean at least another year with the current program and possibly this could give some stability to the market. There is talk of contracting but, if initiated, this will likely take another year or so. Assuming the current program, present projections are for another reduction in the 2000 quota but with an upturn in the next year. Based on the above situation, the possibility of excellent quality, and with the recent massive quota cuts, it is projected that 1999 loan receipts will likely be medium to low. Much of this will still depend on how individual producers handle the harvesting process.

S.C. TOBACCO CROP: The weather has been very extreme but with the latest situation generally being an excellent crop. This means there should be an ample offering of high-quality grades of tobacco. Thus, growers need to take special care to ensure they put the highest quality product on the warehouse floor. Although most S.C. producers take extra care and follow excellent management practices to ensure the highest possible quality, it is important to review some of these factors. These include: harvest three or more stalk positions; market only clean/uniform packaged tobacco (whether sheets or bales); and, use only labeled rates of recommended pesticides. Buyers have been expressing an intense need for tobacco harvested in three or more stalk positions. After several years of drastic improvement in MH residues, levels were up in 1998 as growers apparently did not pay as close attention to recommended practices -- this may be extra important this year since growers may be inclined to use higher MH levels to compensate for potentially higher nitrogen levels. It is recommended that Prime⁺ or Butralin FC be combined with MH to enhance late-season sucker control in lieu of additional MH. Growers should attempt to harvest and cure mature, ripe leaves, being careful with the curing process.

MARKETING SCHEDULE: The 1999 South Carolina marketing schedule follows. This schedule is based on the X Schedule by Tony Fowler, USDA Tobacco Division in Raleigh, NC. The approximate thousand pounds per sale (reported under the market title) are calculated for each set of buyers and may vary slightly during the season. This schedule is based on eight sets of buyers in Area B. The first 11 sales are accelerated with 116 percent of the regular sale rate.

Table 1 shows the balance of the schedule by the number of sales by day of week for each market. For a three-day week, Tuesday becomes the 1st day and Thursday is the 3rd day. The first week will be a three day week this year as Area B had to coordinate with the other flue-cured areas. The last day, a Monday, is not included as a 1st day sale.

Table 1. South Carolina 1999 Tobacco Markets by Day of Week Number of Sales.

---Week Sale Day---						Last Day	Total Days
Market	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Conway	1	2	4	1	8	0	8
Darl-Tim	6	5	5	4	20	1	21
King-Hemi	7	6	6	6	25	1	26
Lake City	14	14	12	9	49	1	50
Loris	4	0	5	1	10	1	11
Mullins	16	17	17	12	62	1	63

The "sandtraps" or markets that share sets of buyers, are different this year. This was necessitated by such factors as the change in quota, designation, etc. For the area there is a total of eight sets of buyers with one complete set of buyers (a total of four sets) assigned to Lake City, Mullins, Tab-White, and FairmontBL markets. The other four sets are shared between: (1) Conway, King-Hemi, and Lake City#2; (2) Darl-Timm and Mullins#2; (3) Loris, FairmontBL#2, and, Tab-White#2; and, (4) Clark-Chad and Lumberton.

THE CLEMSON UNIVERSITY COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICE OFFERS ITS PROGRAMS TO PEOPLE OF ALL AGES, REGARDLESS OF RACE, COLOR, SEX, RELIGION, NATIONAL ORIGIN, OR HANDICAP AND IS AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY EMPLOYER.
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION WORK IN AGRICULTURE AND HOME ECONOMICS--STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA, CLEMSON UNIVERSITY, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, AND SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES COOPERATING.

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updated 7/28/99