MMM 399 July 31, 2000


TOBACCO MARKETING SCHEDULE AND SITUATION UPDATE FOR 2000
R.W. Sutton, Extension Ag. Economist
D.T. Gooden, Extension Agronomist

UPDATE: With the reduced quota, South Carolina tobacco markets are opening August 8th or one week later than last year. There are also 38 sale days as compared to 42 in 1999.

Currently, the 2000 crop is one of the best overall quality crops in recent years. Although there have been a few dry pockets, most of the growing area received very timely rains. This crop should offer a relatively large amount of high quality grades for buyers.

As we start this selling season, policy and marketing issues are substantial and complex. Among these are: significantly smaller production, company uncertainty/litigation, S.C. quality issues, fewer buyers, shorter marketing season, contracting, rental rates, barn refurbishing/nitrosamines, settlement payments, baling/handling two different packages, grading, the selling process, exports/imports, regulations/restrictions, stabilization stocks, and uncertain program/future.

Given all this uncertainty, it is not known how the companies, exporters, and dealers will respond. Most likely these will not extend to highly optimistic forecasts. However, when considering the decline in total demand (domestic and exports) and the rate of change in these reductions, and the sharp reduction in total supply (especially domestic), our production should have about become even with needs. USDA calculates that as of July 1, 2000, estimated last year flue-cured disappearance exceeded marketings by 100 million pounds. As we predicted last year, it looks as if quota levels should finally even-out/possibly upturn this next year.

S.C. TOBACCO CROP: The weather has generally been excellent with the present situation looking as if a superior quality crop will be marketed. However, the production of specific high quality grades will now depend directly on the producer and their harvesting/curing practices. Buyers have sent a very costly message to South Carolina that they want tobacco harvested in three or more stalk positions and to follow other recommended practices. This was communicated in the form of the large amount of 1999 crop that went to stabilization. This state has since started a pilot quality assurance program and several educational activities have targeted producers. "Windshield" surveys of early harvesting fields found that a much larger proportion of the crop is being harvested more than two times. Will this be enough to reverse our reputation?

Growers must utilize detailed management practices to ensure they put the highest quality product on the warehouse floor. Although most S.C. producers take extra care and follow excellent management steps to ensure the highest possible quality, it is especially important to review some of these factors. These include: harvest three or more stalk positions; market only clean/uniform packaged tobacco (bales or sheets); and, use only labeled rates of recommended pesticides. We must also continue to improve in lowering MH residues and give close attention to recommended practices. It is recommended that Prime+ or Butralin FC be combined with MH to enhance late-season sucker control in lieu of additional MH. Growers should make extra effort to harvest and cure mature, ripe leaves, being careful with the curing process. Again, buyers have spoken -- harvest tobacco in three or more stalk positions and use proper practices in harvesting and curing.

MARKETING SCHEDULE: The 2000 South Carolina marketing schedule follows. This schedule is based on the "X Schedule" by Tony Fowler, USDA Tobacco Division in Raleigh, NC. Approximate thousand pounds per sale day (reported under the market title) are calculated for each set of buyers and may vary slightly during the season. This schedule is based on six sets of buyers in Area B. The first two weeks of sales are accelerated with 115 percent of the regular sale rate.

Table 1 shows the balance of the schedule by the number of sales by day of week for each market. For a three-day week, Tuesday becomes the 1st day and Thursday is the 3rd day. The first week will again be a three day week this year. The last day, a Monday, is not included as a 1st day sale.

Table 1. South Carolina 2000 Tobacco Markets by Day of Week Number of Sales.

-- Week Sale Day -- Sale Last Total
Market 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Sum Day Days
Conway 1 2 0 0 3 0 3
Darl-Timm 4 4 2 2 12 0 12
King-Hemi 4 3 3 2 12 1 13
Lake City 9 8 10 7 34 1 35
Loris 1 3 0 2 6 0 6
Mullins 11 13 14 12 50 1 51
Total 3 33 2 2 117 3 120

The "sandtraps" or markets that share sets of buyers are different. This was caused by changes in quota, designation, sets, etc. For our area there is a total of six sets of buyers with assignments: (1) Conway and Lake City; (2) Mullins#1; (3) Darl-Timm, King-Hem, and Mullins#2; (4) Tabor-Whiteville; (5) Loris and Fairmont-F Bluff; and, (6) Clark-Chad and Lumberton.

Contracting and refurbished barns could be an issue this marketing season. It is still unclear how contracted/designated tobacco will affect specific markets and if/how much (if any) contracted production will go through the regular system. The possible "ID'ing" of nitrosamine-free tobacco could also potentially cause more complexity to the system.


2000 SOUTH CAROLINA TYPE 13 TOBACCO MARKET SCHEDULE
Month Day Sale #   Day Week Conway

527

Darl-Timm

572

King-Hemi

561

Lake City

520

Loris

534

Mullins

542

8 1 a Tu X X X
9 2 a We X X X
10 3 a Th X *
14 4 a Mo X X X
15 5 a Tu X X X
16 6 a We X X X
17 7 a Th X X *
AUGUST 21 8 Mo X X X
22 9 Tu X X X
23 10 We X X X
24 11 Th X *
28 12 Mo X *
29 13 Tu X X X X
30 14 We X *
31 15 Th X X X
5 16 Tu X X X
6 17 We X X X
7 18 Th X *
10 19 Mo X X X
11 20 Tu X *
12 21 We X X X
13 22 Th X X X
17 23 Mo X *
SEPTEMBER 18 24 Tu X X X X
19 25 We X X X
20 26 Th X *
24 27 Mo X X X
25 28 Tu X X X
26 29 We X *
27 30 Th X X X X
2 31 Mo X X X
3 32 Tu X *
4 33 We X X X
5 34 Th X X X
OCTOBER 10 35 Mo X X X
11 36 Tu X X *
12 37 We X *
16 38 Mo X X X

Notes:

"a" means an accelerated sale at 115 percent of normal.
"X" stands for one set of buyers; "*" stands for two sets of buyers.

 

THE CLEMSON UNIVERSITY COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICE OFFERS ITS PROGRAMS TO PEOPLE OF ALL AGES, REGARDLESS OF RACE, COLOR, SEX, RELIGION, NATIONAL ORIGIN, OR HANDICAP AND IS AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY EMPLOYER.
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION WORK IN AGRICULTURE AND HOME ECONOMICS--STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA, CLEMSON UNIVERSITY, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, AND SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES COOPERATING.


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