2002 Drought Update:
A Preliminary Analysis of Loss in South Carolina Major Agronomics Crops
Todd D. Davis, ,Charles E. Curtis, and Russ Sutton
Extension Ag Economists
Harold M. Harris, Professor

USDA released a pre-harvest updated crop production report on September 12, with lower yield projections for several of the major agronomic crops produced in South Carolina.  Table 1 reports the projected yields from the August and September crop production reports.  The largest change is in the estimated peanut yield, which is reduced from 2,600 pounds per acre to 2,100 pounds per acre (Table 1).  That is a 19 percent reduction in expected yield from the August report.  The estimated corn yield has been reduced to 35 bushels per acre, a decrease from the already low estimated yield of 42 bushels per acre in the August report.  Tobacco yields have been reduced by another 100 pounds per acre, which is a 5 percent reduction in expected yields (Table 1).

Table 1.  Projected Yields and Percent Change from the August and September Crop Production Reports.

	September Estimates 1/	August Estimates 2/	Percent Change
Corn (Bushels/Acre)	35	42	-17%
Soybeans (Bushels/Acre)	18	18	0%
Wheat (Bushels/Acre)	--	38	0%
Cotton (Pounds/Acre)	503	504	0%
Peanuts (Pounds/Acre)	2,100	2,600	-19%
Tobacco (Pounds/Acre)	1,900	2,000	-5%

^1/ National Agricultural Statistics Service. USDA.  Crop Production. CR PR 2-2. September 12, 2002.
^2/ National Agricultural Statistics Service. USDA.  Crop Production. CR PR 2-2. August 12, 2002.

The updated preliminary estimates of the cost of the drought on the primary agronomic crops produced in South Carolina are reported in Table 2.  The total loss for these crops is estimated to be $84.14 million dollars (Table 2).  About 39 percent is from reduced corn production, 24 percent is from reduced cotton production and lost LDP’s.  Reduced tobacco production accounts for another 21 percent of the total economic loss (Table 2). 

Table 2.  Value of Reduced Production due to the 2002 Drought in South Carolina.

	Value of Reduced Production ($ Million) 1/	Value of Abandoned Acreage ($ Million) 2/	Value of Lost LDP ($ Million) 3/	Total Loss ($ Million) 3/
Corn	$32.66	$0.00	$0.00	$32.66
Soybeans	10.04	0.00	0.00	10.04
Wheat	2.46	0.12	0.00	2.58
Cotton	13.04	0.35	6.71	20.11
Peanuts	1.13	0.00	0.00	1.13
Tobacco	17.62	0.00	0.00	17.62
Total	$76.96	$0.47	$6.71	$84.14

^1/ Production loss relative to 10-year average yield. 
^2/ Production loss relative to 10-year average abandoned acreage.
^3/ Value based on market prices at this writing.

This is a preliminary estimate and does not include all commodities. Harvested yield and abandoned acreage data will be updated in future USDA reports.  Future analysis will include hay and forages, fruit and vegetables, livestock, and forestry losses.  Estimates will be updated as more current information is received.