2002 Drought Update: USDA Reduces the Projected State Average Cotton Yield

Todd D. Davis, Hal M. Harris, Charles E. Curtis, and Russ Sutton
Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics
Clemson University

USDA released an updated crop production report on October 11 with a significantly lower projected yield for cotton.  The October report, based on crop conditions on October 1, has started to incorporate actual harvested yield data into the projections.  The yield projections will be revised as further harvest information is collected throughout harvest.

Table 1 reports the projected yields from the August, September, and October crop production reports.  The projected state average cotton yield has been reduced from 503 pounds per acre in September to 369 pounds per acre in October (Table 1).  This is a 27 percent reduction in the expected yield from the September report.  The estimated peanut yield has been increased by 100 pounds per acre, from 2,100 pounds per acre in September to 2,200 pounds per acre in October.  The expected state average yields for corn, soybeans, and tobacco have not changed from the September report (Table 1).

Table 1.  Projected State Average Yields from the August, September, and October Crop Production Reports and the Percent Change from the September Report.

	October Estimates 1/	September Estimates 2/	August Estimates 3/	Percent Change from September
Corn (Bushels/Acre)	35	35	42	0%
Soybeans (Bushels/Acre)	18	18	18	0%
Wheat (Bushels/Acre)	--	--	38	0%
Cotton (Pounds/Acre)	369	503	504	-27%
Peanuts (Pounds/Acre)	2,200	2,100	2,600	+5%
Tobacco (Pounds/Acre)	1,900	1,900	2,000	0%

^1/ National Agricultural Statistics Service. USDA.  Crop Production. CR PR 2-2. October 11, 2002.
^2/ National Agricultural Statistics Service. USDA.  Crop Production. CR PR 2-2. September 12, 2002.
^3/ National Agricultural Statistics Service. USDA.  Crop Production. CR PR 2-2. August 12, 2002.

The large reduction in expected cotton yield reflects the crop conditions reported in the weekly South Carolina Crop Weather reports.  Table 2 reports the percentage of the agronomic crops rated in poor or very poor condition for the weeks ending August 4, September 1, and September 29, 2002.  These time periods coincide with the Crop Production yield projections listed in Table 1.  The August 4 crop weather report indicated that 34% of the cotton crop was rated in poor or very poor condition.  As a result, the national crop production report had a projected yield of 504 pounds per acre.  However, the September 29 Crop Weather report indicated that 54% of the cotton crop was in poor or very poor condition.  This deterioration of the cotton crop has been reflected in the reduced projected yield of 369 pounds per acre.  The yield projections may be reduced further as actual harvested yields are reported.  Table 2 also explains why projected yields for corn, soybeans, and tobacco have remained constant from the September report, as there has been little change in crop ratings throughout the late summer and early fall.

Table 2.  Percentage of South Carolina Agronomic Crops Rated Poor or Very Poor in 2002.

Week Ending:	September 29, 2002 1/	September 1, 2002 2/	August 4, 2002 3/
Corn	81%	80%	76%
Soybeans	44%	55%	45%
Cotton	54%	46%	34%
Peanuts	39%	35%	18%
Tobacco	24%	24%	29%

^1/ South Carolina Agricultural Statistics Service.  South Carolina Crop Weather.  SC-CW1724.  September 29, 2002.
^2/ South Carolina Agricultural Statistics Service.  South Carolina Crop Weather.  SC-CW1720.  September 2, 2002.
^3/ South Carolina Agricultural Statistics Service.  South Carolina Crop Weather.  SC-CW1716.  August 5, 2002.

The updated preliminary estimates of the cost of the drought on the primary agronomic crops produced in South Carolina are reported in Table 3.  The total loss for these crops is estimated to be $106.33 million (Table 3).  About 43 percent of the loss is from reduced cotton production and lost loan deficiency payments, and 29 percent is from reduced corn production.  Reduced tobacco production accounts for another 17 percent of the total economic loss (Table 3). 

Table 3.  Value of Reduced Production for the Major Agronomic Crops Due to the 2002 Drought in South Carolina.

	Value of Reduced Production ($ Million) 1/	Value of Abandoned Acreage ($ Million) 2/	Value of Lost Loan Deficiency Payments ($ Million) 3/	Total Loss ($ Million) 3/
Corn	$30.99	$0.00	$0.01	$31.00
Soybeans	8.97	0.00	0.05	9.03
Wheat	2.33	0.12	0.14	2.58
Cotton	28.65	0.77	15.81	45.23
Peanuts	0.80	0.00	0.06	0.86
Tobacco	17.62	0.00	0.00	17.62
Total	$89.36	$0.89	$16.08	$106.33

^1/ Production loss relative to 10-year average yield. 
^2/ Production loss relative to 10-year average abandoned acreage.
^3/ Value based on market prices at this writing.

This is a preliminary estimate and does not include all commodities. Harvested yield and abandoned acreage data will be updated in future USDA reports.  Future analysis will include hay and forages, fruit and vegetables, livestock, and forestry losses.  Estimates will be updated as more current information is received.