The USDA estimates farmers intend to plant 15.2 million acres of cotton in 1996 (Table 1). This is a 10 percent decrease from the 16.9 million acres planted in 1995. The estimates are the result of a national survey of farmer intentions taken on or about March 1 and released on March 29, 1996. Upland cotton plantings are expected to decrease 10.4 percent from the 16.7 million acres planted in 1995 to 14.98 million this year. The balance of the intended acres (265,000) are in Pima production in the western US.

Only two states, the Southeast's Florida and Virginia, indicated acreage increases. Southeastern acreage in aggregate followed the pattern of acreage reduction seen in all upland cotton producing regions. However, the acreage decrease was less severe than declines in other regions. For example, the Southeast decline of five percent (or 177,000 acres) was far less than the near 14 percent decline (932,200 acres) in the Southwest region. Thus, the Southeast gained in its relative share of US cotton acreage; 22 percent now compared to only 16 percent two years ago. Georgia, which is intending to plant nearly 1.4 million acres has reasserted herself as the second largest cotton state. North Carolina is expected to plant 780,000 acres. South Carolina is projected to plant 310,000 acres which is a 10 percent (35,000 acre) decline from last year but still a substantial increase over 1994's 225,000 acres.

The Midsouth region appears to be taking advantage of the new flexibility to shift some fields into other crops. The region is expected to shift over a half million acres out of cotton in 1996. Mississippi accounts for over half of the region's decline with a 260,000 acre reduction. Arkansas, Tennessee and Louisiana account for the majority of the remaining acerage reduction. Missouri held firm with acreage nearly identical to 1995's 461,000 acres.

Texas, the US's largest cotton producing state is shifting 900,000 acres out of upland. This is significant. In fact, the Texas acreage reduction is larger than the summed reduction (836,300) in all other upland-producing states.

In the Southeastern and Midsouth regions and Texas, decreased acres were expected because of high relative feed grain prices and increased flexibility in the new federal farm legislation. Did corn and other feed grains capture cotton ground? Table 2 shows the change (from 1995 actual plantings) of selected row crop acres in the Southeast, Midsouth and Southwest regions. What I find interesting is that aggregate acres across all the crops reviewed is up in every region. Feed Grains (Corn & Sorghum) should be up; there's no set- aside this year. What is striking is the magnitude of the increases. Clearly, feed grains are up with flair in the Eastern belt. Corn & milo up 3.4 million acres; Cotton down 1.6 million acres. That's a shift! Wheat's resurgence in the Midsouth and Southwest is strongly noted also. My bias is that Southeastern wheat would have been up more had the region gotten a bit more cooperation from Mother Nature at planting.

Some particular States are worth mention. Texas switched to sorghum and increased total acres. Mississippi and Georgia made a bold move into corn. Cotton held ground well in North Carolina.

The puzzlement seems to be Missouri. Cotton acres are basically the same as last year for the "Show Me" state. But 850,000 more acres of corn? Wheat up 350,000 acres? Aggregate Missouri acres up over 1.2 million? Wow, Missouri, that's a load of new cropland. Will acreage be up that much in Missouri? I guess only time will "Show Me."

Table 1.  Cotton Acres,  Actual & Prospective Plantings by Region, State
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                1996      1996        State
                  Actual   Actual     Proj.    Acreage    % of       %  of
Region/State       1994     1995      1996     Change    Yr. Ago       U.S.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          (1,000 acres)                 (percent)
UPLAND                                                
Southeast                                             
     Alabama        463.0    590.0     580.0     -10.0     -1.7%       3.9%
     Florida         69.0    110.0     120.0      10.0      9.1%       0.8%
     Georgia        885.0  1,500.0   1,380.0    -120.0     -8.0%       9.2%
 North Carolina     486.0    810.0     780.0     -30.0     -3.7%       5.2%
 South Carolina     225.0    345.0     310.0     -35.0    -10.1%       2.1%
    Virginia         42.2    107.0     115.0       8.0      7.5%       0.8%
   Region Total   2,170.2  3,462.0   3,285.0    -177.0     -5.1%       21.9%
%of U.S. Upland      16.0%    20.7%     21.9%    --         --          --
                                                      
Midsouth                                              
Arkansas            980.0  1,170.0   1,100.0     -70.0     -6.0%       7.3%
Louisiana           900.0  1,085.0     970.0    -115.0    -10.6%       6.5%
Mississippi       1,280.0  1,460.0   1,200.0    -260.0    -17.8%       8.0%
Missouri            352.0    461.0     460.0      -1.0     -0.2%       3.1%
Tennessee           590.0    700.0     630.0     -70.0    -10.0%       4.2%
   Region Total   4,102.0  4,876.0   4,360.0    -516.0    -10.6%      29.1%
%of U.S. Upland      30.3%    29.2%     29.1%     --       --           --    
                                                                         
Southwest                                                                
Kansas                1.4      3.8       1.5      -2.3    -60.5%       0.0%
Oklahoma            360.0    380.0     350.0     -30.0     -7.9%       2.3%
Texas             5,450.0  6,400.0   5,500.0    -900.0    -14.1%      36.7%
   Region Total   5,811.4  6,783.8   5,851.5    -932.3    -13.7%      39.1%
%of U.S. Upland      42.9%    40.6%     39.1%     --       --          --    
                                                                         
West                                                                     
Arizona             313.0    365.0     325.0     -40.0    -11.0%       2.2%
California        1,100.0  1,170.0   1,100.0     -70.0     -6.0%       7.3%
New Mexico           55.0     61.0      60.0      -1.0     -1.6%       0.4%
   Region Total   1,468.0  1,596.0   1,485.0    -111.0     -7.0%       9.9%
%of U.S. Upland      10.8%     9.5%      9.9%     --        --          --    
                                                                         
  Total Upland   13,551.6 16,717.8  14,981.5   -1736.3    -10.4%        --    
                                                                         
PIMA                                                                     
     Arizona         48.0     48.6      40.0      -8.6    -17.7%      15.1%
   California        81.0    115.0     165.0      50.0     43.5%      62.3%
   New Mexico        11.0     15.0      18.0       3.0     20.0%       6.8%
      Texas          28.5     36.0      42.0       6.0     16.7%      15.8%
     Total Pima     168.5    214.6     265.0      50.4     23.5%     100.0%
                                                                         
ALL COTTON       13,720.1 16,932.4  15,246.5   -1685.9    -10.0%       --    
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source:  USDA, NASS, Planting Intentions Report, March 29, 1996.
Note:  1996 is "Intended Plantings" reported by farmers.

Table 2.  Acreage Changes in Prospective Plantings by State & Crop, 
          1996 from 1995.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 Cotton    Corn    Sorghum   Rice     Wheat   Soybean
                 Acreage  Acreage  Acreage  Acreage  Acreage  Acreage Aggregate
Region/State     Change   Change   Change   Change   Change   Change   Change
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     ( 1,000 acres)
Southeast
    Alabama          -10       80       -1       NA      -10      -20       39
    Florida           10       20       NA       NA       -7       -2       21
    Georgia         -120      180       25       NA       50       50      185
 North Carolina      -30      200        0       NA      -80        0       90
 South Carolina      -35       50       -2       NA      -30      -10      -27
    Virginia           8       20       NA       NA      -10       10       28
  Region Total      -177      550       22       NA      -87       28      336

Midsouth
Arkansas             -70      105       30      -80      200     -150       35
Louisiana           -115      200       33      -35       40     -100       23
Mississippi         -260      250       30      -20       50       50      100
Missouri              -1      850       20       -9      350        0     1210
Tennessee            -70       30       -3      -20       20       20      -23
  Region Total      -516     1435      110     -164      660     -180     1345

Southwest
Kansas                -2      250      100       NA      100      -50      298
Oklahoma             -30        0      100       NA      100       10       80
Texas               -900       50      800      -20      200       40      170
  Region Total      -932      300     1000      -20      400        0      748

Total              -1625     2285     1132     -184      973     -152     2429
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source:  USDA, NASS, Planting Intentions Report, March 29, 1996.