OU 328July 22, 1997

CATTLE INVENTORY STILL DECLINING

P. J. Rathwell, Extension Ag. Economist



The USDA July 1, 1997 cattle inventory, released July 18th, indicated that the U.S. cattle industry continued to decline throughout the first half of 1997. All cattle and calves on U.S. ranches and farms as of July 1, 1997 totaled 108.8 million head, down 2 percent from a year earlier and down 4 percent from 1995's total of 113.0 million head (Table 1).

The inventory estimates the number of cows in the U.S. beef and dairy herds to be down 2 percent from a year earlier. Beef cows were down 900,000 head to 34.7 million. Dairy cows were down 1 percent.

Table 1. Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, United States, July 1, 1995-97.


Class

1995

1996

1997		 1997 as
% of 1996

------------ 1,000 Head ------------
Percent
Cattle and Calves 113,000 111,500 108,800 98
Cows and Heifers that have Calved 45,600 45,000 44,000 98
Beef Cows 36,100 35,600 34,700 97
Milk Cows 9,500 9,400 9,300 99
Heifers 500 Pounds and Over 17,600 17,300 17,100 99
For Beef Cow Replacement 5,700 5,500 5,300 96
For Milk Cow Replacement 3,900 3,700 3,600 97
Other Heifers 8,000 8,100 8,200 101
Steers 500 Pounds and Over 15,400 15,100 14,600 97
Bulls 500 Pounds and Over 2,400 2,400 2,300 96
Calves under 500 Pounds 32,000 31,700 30,800 97
Calf Crop 40,211 39,586 38,800 98
Cattle on Feed 11,200 9,800 10,900 111




Heifer estimates (beef and dairy) of animals 500 pounds and over were 1 percent below a year ago. Beef producers reported holding back 4 percent fewer heifers for breeding herd replacement purposes than a year earlier. Dairy heifers for replacement purposes was 3 percent lower than 1996 estimate. The number of other heifers, weighing 500 pounds and over as of July 1, 1997 was one greater than last year.
Steers weighing 500 pounds and up were 3 percent below last year. Calves weighing 500 and under were also down 3 percent. USDA estimated that the 1997 U.S. calf crop would total 38.8 million head, down 2 percent from 1996's estimate and the smallest calf crop since 1991.
Though this July 1, 1997 total cattle inventory report indicates that cattle numbers are declining the number of cattle on-feed in the U.S. continues to increase in the short-term. This still causes concern for the summer months and into the fall. The USDA cattle on feed report released on July 18th, indicated feedlot numbers up 1.1 million head over a year ago (Table 2).

Table 2. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, July 1, 1996-97
Number 1997 as % of
Item 1996 1997 1996
----1,000 Head---- Percent
On Feed June 1 8,601 *9,615 112
Placed on Feed During June 1,305 1,444 111
Fed Cattle Marketed During June 1,996 2,041 102
Other Disappearance During June 2 70 60 86
On Feed July 1 1 7,840 8,958 114
* Revised
1 Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better.
2 Includes death losses, movement from feedlots to pastures and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding.


Placements of cattle into feedlots during June were still above a year earlier, as has been the case since January of this year and for 10 of the last 12 months. However, placements may begin to slow late this summer. Large supplies of beef this summer will likely drive down the price of fed cattle and create red ink for cattle feeders. Marketings were up 2 percent for the month, but this may not be sufficient to offset the current feedlot inventories. Feedlots will need to keep marketings at a brisk pace or summer's lower prices may continue into this fall.

In general, these inventory numbers indicate that beef supplies will continue to be at significant levels throughout the summer and into the fall. At this point numbers should ease (given feedlots can maintain their current marketing rate). The 1998 season still appears to show improved times are going to continue. Fewer steers weighing 500 pounds, a smaller 1997 calf crop, lower corn prices, and a large year-over-year increase in the number of cattle placed into feedlots in 1997 has tightened the estimated feeder cattle supply situation for the 1998 year. The July 1, 1997 estimated feeder cattle supply will be nearly 2.4 million below last years--the smallest since 1987.


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COOPERATIVE EXTENSION WORK IN AGRICULTURE AND HOME ECONOMICS--STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA, CLEMSON UNIVERSITY, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, AND SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES COOPERATING.

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updated 7/22/97