| OU 344 | July 28, 1999 |
U.S. CATTLE INVENTORY
CONTINUES TO DECLINE
P.J. Rathwell, Extension Ag. Economist
The USDA July 1, cattle inventory indicated that U.S. cattle continued to decline throughout the first half of 1999. All cattle and calves on U.S. farms and ranches as of July 1, 1999 totaled 106.8 million head, down one percent from a year earlier and two percent from the 109.2 million head two years ago (Table 1).
This mid-year inventory estimated the number of cows that had calved in the U.S. beef and dairy herds at 43.2 million head, down one percent from a year ago. Beef cows were down 350,000 head to 34.05 million. Dairy cows were down 50,000 to 9.150 million head.
The USDA survey estimated that the number of heifers (beef and dairy) weighing 500 pounds and over were 16.6 million head, one percent below last year. Beef producers reported holding back four percent fewer heifers for breeding herd replacement purposes than a year earlier. Dairy heifers for replacement purposes were up three percent from their 1998 level.
Steers weighing 500 pounds and up were one percent below 1998 numbers. Calves weighing 500 pounds and under were unchanged. USDA estimated that the 1999 calf crop would total 38.3 million head, down one percent from last year.
Table 1. Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, U.S. July 1, 1999
|
|
|
|
|
1999 as |
|
1,000 head |
||||
|
Cattle and Calves |
109,200 |
107,700 |
106,800 |
99 |
|
Cows and Heifers that have calved |
|
|
|
|
|
Beef Cows |
44,100 |
43,600 |
43,200 |
99 |
|
Dairy Cows |
34,800 |
34,400 |
34,050 |
99 |
|
Heifers 500 pounds and over |
17,100 |
16,700 |
16,600 |
99 |
|
For Beef Cow replacement |
5,300 |
5,000 |
4,800 |
96 |
|
For Milk Cow replacement |
3,600 |
3,600 |
3,700 |
103 |
|
Other Heifers |
8,200 |
8,100 |
8,100 |
100 |
|
Steers 500 pounds and over |
14,800 |
14,600 |
14,400 |
99 |
|
Bulls 500 pounds and over |
2,300 |
2,200 |
2,100 |
95 |
|
Calves under 500 pounds |
30,900 |
30,600 |
30,500 |
100 |
|
Calf Crop |
38,961 |
38,582 |
38,300 |
99 |
Through July 1, 1999 total cattle inventory report indicated that cattle numbers declined, the numbers of animals on feed in U.S. feedlots continue to increase through the summer months of 1999. These feedlot supplies are producing record levels of beef.
Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in feedlots with 1,000 or larger capacity totaled 9.56 million head on July 1, 1999. This inventory is four percent larger than last year. Heifer and heifer calves accounted for 3.78 million head, up three percent from 1998 (Table 2).
Placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.78 million head, 14 percent above June of 1998. By weight categories most of this increase occurred in the less than 600 pound and over 800 pound groups (12 and 11 percent, respectively) and in the over 800 pound category (29 percent). Cheap corn and dry conditions in several areas of the mid-West, South and mid-Atlantic region likely caused some of this early movement.
In summary, the July 1, cattle inventory estimates indicate that future animal numbers will be lower over the next few years. This is good new for the industry. However, the industry continues to see a short-term feedlot supply problem. Cheap feed costs resulting in heavier out-weights are still producing near record beef supplies. And, competition from the pork and poultry industries is growing. The future will be brighter for beef cattle producers------but, when will the future finally get here?????
Table 2: Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketing and Other Disappearances, 1,000 + Capacity Feedlots, U.S. July 1, 1999.
|
Item |
1998 |
1999 |
1999 as % of 1998 |
|
|
million head |
|
|
|
On feed June 1, 1999 |
9,703 |
9,977 |
103 |
|
Placed on feed during June |
1,564 |
1,784 |
114 |
|
Fed cattle marketed during June |
2,034 |
2,143 |
105 |
|
Other disappearance during June |
72 |
63 |
88 |
|
On feed July 1, 1999 |
9,161 |
9,555 |
104 |
Outlook
Update Index 
Ag Econ Home