Preliminary Estimate of the Value of South Carolina's Major Agronomic Crops for 2006

Todd D. Davis
Extension Economist

As South Carolina producers continue with harvest, it is time to evaluate the impact of this summer's dry weather on the state's major agronomic crops. This memo uses state-average data collected by the USDA-National Agricultural Statistics Service to estimate the value of production for the major agronomic crops produced in South Carolina in 2006 and compares this value to that of recent years.

Corn

South Carolina producers will harvest an estimated 270,000 acres of corn for grain in 2006.  The harvested corn acreage for grain is expected to be 15,000 acres less than in 2005 and is the smallest amount harvested for grain since 2003 (Table 1).  While regions in South Carolina have experienced dry weather, the state-average yield is estimated to be 106 bushels per acre.  This is 10 bushels per acre less than the state-average record yield set in 2005 (Table1).  The reduction in harvested acres and yield translates into a 13.4% reduction in corn production from 2005.  South Carolina is estimated to produce 28.6 million bushels of corn in 2006.  However, the harvest-time price for 2006 is estimated to be greater than the prices received in 2005.  The value of South Carolina's corn crop is estimated to be over $71.5 million with the increase in price off-setting the reduced grain production. The economic value of corn production for 2006 is about 3.1% greater than the 2005 value (Table 1).

Table 1.  South Carolina State Average Corn Production, Market Year Prices and Value of Production from 2000 to 2006 (Estimated).

Soybeans

South Carolina producers are expected to harvest 435,000 soybean acres in 2006.  This is 15,000 acres more than in 2005 but is about 95,000 acres less than the acreage harvested in 2004 (Table 2).  The state-average yield soybean yield is expected to be 26 bushels per acre which is 6 bushels per acre more than the 2005 yield.  The increased acreage and yield will increase soybean production in South Carolina by 31% for an estimated 2006 South Carolina soybean crop of 11.3 million bushels (2006).  The expected harvest-time soybean price is about $0.20 per bushel less than the 2005 marketing year average price.  However, the large increase in production will compensate for the lower prices and increase the value of the state's soybean production from 2005. The estimated value of the 2006 soybean crop is expected to be $60.5 million which is 26% greater than the value in 2005 (Table 2). 

Table 2.  South Carolina State Average Soybean Production, Market Year Prices and Value of Production from 2000 to 2006 (Estimated).

Wheat

South Carolina producers continue to reduce their production of wheat (Table 3).  South Carolina producers have been reducing wheat acreage each year since 2003.  An estimated 133,000 acres of wheat were harvested in 2006.  This is 19.4% less than in 2005 and 77,000 acres less than in 2001 (Table 3).  The estimated 2006 state-average yield is 48 bushels per acre which is down 7.7% from 2005.  However, the expected state-average yield is the second-largest since 2001. The reduced yield and acreage combines for an expected 2006 South Carolina wheat crop of 6.3 million bushels down 2.1 million bushels from 2005.  The harvest-time wheat price is estimated to be 13% higher than in 2005.  The 2006 state-average value of wheat production is estimated to be $19.5 million which is $3.6 million less than 2005 due to the large decrease in production (Table 3).

Table 3.  South Carolina State Average Wheat Production, Market Year Prices and Value of Production from 2000 to 2006 (Estimated).

Cotton

South Carolina producers are expected to harvest 33,000 more cotton acres in 2006 than in 2005 (Table 4).  With an expected harvest of 298,000 acres, this is the largest amount of cotton acreage harvested since 2001.  The state-average cotton yield is expected to be 693 pounds per acre which is 6.7% less than the 2005 state-average yield.  State-average cotton production is 4.9% greater than in 2005 due to the increased acreage.  Harvest-time cotton prices are expected to be $0.53 per pound which is slightly higher than the 2005 marketing-year average price.  The 2006 state-average value of cotton production is estimated to be $110.1 million which is $11.4 million greater than in 2005 (Table 4).

Table 4.  South Carolina State Average Cotton Production, Market Year Prices and Value of Production from 2000 to 2006 (Estimated).

Peanut

Peanuts acreage has sky-rocketed since the elimination of the peanut marketing quota in 2002.  Harvested peanut acreage increased from 8,700 acres in 2002 to an estimated 56,000 acres in 2006 (Table 5).  The 2006 harvested acreage is down 6.7% from 2005.  Yields, however, are expected to be up from 2005.  The increased expected state-level yield will increase the state's peanut production from 2005.  With an estimated harvest-time peanut price of $400/ton, the 2006 value of peanut production is expected to be $34.7 million which is a 14.8% increase from 2005.

Table 5.  South Carolina State Average Peanut Production, Market Year Prices and Value of Production from 2000 to 2006 (Estimated).

Tobacco

South Carolina producers are estimated to have harvested 22,000 acres of tobacco in 2006. This is a slight increase in acreage from 2005.  However, South Carolina tobacco acreage is down 56% from 1995.  The 2006 estimated tobacco production is 46.2 million pounds up 10% from 2005.  The 2006 value of tobacco production is estimated to be $70.2 million which is a 13% increase from 2005. However, the 2006 value of tobacco production is substantially less than the value of production during the years with a tobacco marketing quota (Table 6).

Table 6.  South Carolina State Average Tobacco Production, Market Year Prices and Value of Production from 2000 to 2006 (Estimated).

Estimated State-Average Total Value of Production

The state-average total value of production for the major agronomic crops for 2006 is estimated to be $366.7 million. This is an increase of $35.5 million from 2005 (Table 7).  Since this analysis uses state-average data, it does not capture the effects of localized drought conditions and the yield variability that exists throughout the state.  In addition, the analysis does not consider the effect of dry weather on pasture and forage production and the related impact on the state's beef and dairy industries.  The effect of localized drought conditions will be evaluated as USDA NASS makes this data available later this year and in 2007. 

Table 7.  South Carolina State Average Total Value of Production for Major Agronomic Crops from 2000 to 2006 (Estimated).